Headlines
- The North East's population began to rise this decade having fallen for many years. The main reason behind this is increased in-migration.
- Generally, the population is becoming older and more ethnically diverse.
Introduction
Demographic change is taking place in the North East population, with projections showing expected changes in the total number of people due to both migration and natural change, changes in the proportions of people in different age groups, and changes in composition of households. Population changes impact on just about every aspect of life and with such a dynamic population there have been inevitable policy implications in relation to strategy documents like the Regional Economic Strategy (RES), as population change is just as much a spatial and economic issue as it is a social one.
Understanding the North East population and the likely changes that will take place is essential in terms of planning for housing, health care and economic growth.
Historic Trends
The population of the North East steadily decreased over the 1980s and 1990. However, the population in the North East since 2003 has seen an upturn and in mid-2009 was estimated to have grown to 2,584,300 people – bucking the downward trend seen over the period 1981 - 2003. Population growth occurred in all other English regions – although more significantly in the East of England, London, the South West and the East Midlands between 1999 and 2009. The expansion of the EU is likely to have affected the projected population increases as a result of increased migration, particularly from recent EU accession countries in Eastern Europe. For further details on migration please refer to the Migration chapter.
Future Trends
Projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that English regions are all expected to achieve growth between now and 2033. The rate of growth differs from region to region, with the North East expected to realise the second lowest growth over the 25 year projected period, 10.1% by 2033 – to put this into context the average English projected growth rate is nearly 8 percentage points higher at 18.0%. The projected strongest performing region is the East of England – with a projected population growth of nearly 24.5% by 2033. The regions other than the North East to have a projected growth rate lower than the English average are the North West (with the lowest projected population growth) and West Midlands.
The 2005 Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) projected a population of 2,550,000 in the North East by 2016. With the recent population increases, this projection has already been exceeded.
Age Distribution
Demographic changes will affect the North East population in the next five, ten, fifteen years and beyond both in terms of the total number of people who live in the region and in the dynamics of the groups of people who make up that population. There is a lot of speculation about the “ageing population” and that the working age population of the North East (like the rest of the UK) will have to support more over 65s in the future. Breaking the north east down into three age groups enables us to determine the dynamics of different sections of the north east population. The age groupings represent different things depending if the perspective is social or economic. The under 15s can be classed as children; dependents; school pupils or potential future workforce. 16-64 year olds could be school leavers; students; potential workforce or parents. Those aged 65+ could be retired or part of our older workforce; they may perhaps be widowed or very elderly. These characteristics are fairly general and not exclusive to each age group – but they give us an idea of some of the issues facing people of a particular age that may impact on policy.
The changing age distribution of the population can be easily visualised by dividing the population into age bands and looking at how the percentage in each age band changes over time.
The middle band (16-64yrs) has remained relatively stable at just over 60% of the population for almost 20 years, but it was projected to decrease slowly from 2007 onwards.
The proportion of the youngest age group (15 and younger) has been decreasing steadily since the early 1980s but is projected to stabilise at about 16% over the next 15 years. Those aged 65 and above are the only age group projected to grow in size over the next 15 years. In the early 1980s this age group represented 17% of the North East population but is projected to increase to 27% by 2031.
The evidence suggests that in the future the North East will have a smaller workforce and an ageing population which may have widespread implications on areas such as housing, health and the economy.
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Population levels change as a result of natural change and migration. For the most part the during past 15 years outward migration dominated, accounting for over 80% of the region’s population decrease between mid-1995 and mid-2001. Since mid-2001 increased levels of net inward migration have offset natural change to boost the region’s population, and estimates in mid-2006 show that both migration and natural change contributed to an increase in the North East’s population. Both types of change occur as the difference between much larger numbers. Natural change is the difference between numbers of births and deaths whilst migration is the difference between the inflow of migrants and outflow of migrants.
Over the five years to mid-2006 births averaged 27,400 per annum. Whilst annual numbers of deaths have remained fairly steady in recent years, numbers of births have increased causing the upward trend in natural change. Migratory inflows from both internal UK migration and International migration was around 55,000 - 60,000 per annum over this period, compared to migratory outflows of around 50,000 - 57,000 from the region to other parts of the UK or overseas. These factors have contributed to net population growth in the North East over this period. ONS population projections show a continuation of this trend, however, as migration figures are so volatile, this trend cannot be relied upon. Over the next 10 years, natural change is projected to cause an increase in the region’s population of between 4,000 and 5.000 persons per annum.
Ethnic Minority Population
The North East population is diverse and dynamic and the census enables us to look at the make up of the population in terms of ethnicity. The distribution of ethnic minority population within the UK is highly uneven with approaching half of all ethnic minority population residing in London. According to the 2001 census 60,000 people or 2.4% of the North East’s population are classified as within ethnic minority group compared to 8.7% in England and Wales. Both figures represent an increase on the previous census (1.4% and 5.9% respectively) with the relative growth being greater in the region.
Bearing in mind the much lower proportion of ethnic minorities in the North East the regional profile of ethnic minority populations shows some similarities and differences with that for England and Wales. Particularly noticeable is the very low proportion of black Caribbean people who account for 12.5% of the ethnic minority population nationally but only 1.5% within the region. To read more about ethnic minority groups and equality and diversity please refer to the Equality and Diversity chapter.
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Household Numbers and Household Sizes
As mentioned previously in this chapter, housing need is strongly linked to population and population change. As such, household numbers and size may change as a result of the population changes.
In the 2001 Census; the North East accounted for 4.8% of the population of England and Wales and, at just over 1,066,000, 4.9% of households. The marginal difference is accounted for by the average household sizes. Although the regional variation is small, the North East has, on average 2.36 persons per household. This is the lowest of all the regions of England and Wales and compares to a national average of 2.40. The difference is explained in part by the population of single person households. In the North East, 30.7% of households are single person compared to 30.0% nationally.
Although the North East’s population decreased by nearly 2% between 1991 and 2001, the number of households increased by nearly 4%. Much of this is attributable to relatively large increases in the numbers of single person households both regionally and nationally. If the trend for increasing numbers of single households continues then this will impact the population’s housing requirements in terms of number and type.
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