Headlines
- The region's industrial greenhouse gas emissions came down in the 1990s but have remained steady since 2000. Reduced emissions in 2009 are mainly a result of the economic recession.
- End user emissions are reducing only slowly.
The ‘2009 State of the Climate’ report, issued by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) draws on data from 10 key climate indicators such as air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, marine air temperature, sea-level, arctic sea-ice, glaciers and tropospheric temperature in the ‘active-weather’ layer of the atmosphere. All indicators draw data from multiple sources and, despite the variability caused by short-term changes, the analysis conducted points to a single conclusion, that the climate is unequivocally warming.
Globally the ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997 and, in the UK, 9 of the 10 warmest have been since 1990 (Source: Met Office).
The main human cause for the accelerated global warming of the recent years is the emission of greenhouse gases created as we burn fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to generate electricity, for transport and to provide heat for our homes and businesses. As an industrial region, the North East has high per capita greenhouse gas emissions and must work to reduce them while also planning and adapting our social and economic activities to be more resilient to impacts of the climate change that will inevitably arise from this warming.
Reducing the causes of Climate Change
The UK Climate Change Act and Renewable Energy Strategy
The Climate Change Act 2008 received Royal Assent in November 2008. The Act requires the country to drive greenhouse gas emissions down by 34% below 1990 levels by 2020 with an 80% reduction by 2050. Following Budget 2009, the first three “carbon budgets” for UK greenhouse gas reduction were set in law and, in July 2009, the government published its UK Low Carbon Transition Plan to describe a “route” to meet the carbon budgets while also maintaining secure energy supplies, maximising economic opportunities, and protecting the most vulnerable. According to the Plan, around half the emissions reductions are expected to come from the power and heavy industry sectors with more modest contributions (about one third in total) being made by transport, homes and communities.
There are six main greenhouse gases which are building up in the atmosphere and causing global warming and resultant climate change. The most important of these is carbon dioxide. Total emissions from greenhouse gases are converted to a standard carbon dioxide equivalent based on their 100-year global warming potential (GWP).
Regional greenhouse gas emissions
More than 85% of the region’s greenhouse gas global warming potential comes from emission of carbon dioxide. The Department of Energy and Climate Change publishes figures for carbon dioxide emissions per capita on a regional basis. The 2005 and 2006 data have been revised slightly from previous DEFRA releases owing to minor changes in methodology. These figures are not comparable to pre-2005 experimental DEFRA releases because of more significant methodological changes. These are called “end user” emissions because the very high emissions from the power sector are re-allocated to where the power is used (by households or businesses) rather than being assigned to the region in which it is generated.
The North East Region has the highest end user per capita emissions because of the large amount of energy intensive manufacturing and processing industry. Between 2005 and 2008 there have been only gradual or unsustained per capita emissions reductions across all sectors – industry, domestic and road transport.
End User per Capita Emissions (tonnes of CO2) by Region, (2005-2008)
Source: DECC
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| England |
8.6 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
8.0 |
| North East |
12.9 |
12.6 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
| Yorkshire and Humber |
10.3 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
9.6 |
| North West |
8.8 |
8.6 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
| East Midlands |
9.4 |
9.2 |
8.9 |
8.6 |
| West Midlands |
8.3 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
| East |
8.2 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
7.6 |
| London |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
| South East |
8.2 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
7.6 |
| South West |
8.3 |
8.2 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
The vast majority of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses emitted by industry in the region come from companies whose processes are regulated by the Environment Agency, as shown in the graph above. Fuel and Power generation (emissions mostly re-allocated to other regions in the “end user” data), Metals and Chemicals sectors comprise about 95% of these industrial emissions between them. The huge reduction in emissions of nitrous oxide between 1998 and 1999 was almost entirely the result of the commissioning by the then Du Pont of a unit which destroys nitrous oxide. This reduction represented a 3 per cent reduction in global warming releases for the entire UK. Since 2000, overall emissions have remained fairly steady although the impact of the economic recession on industrial output caused a decrease between 2008 and 2009.
The Climate Change Act targets are not allocated regionally, but even so, a comprehensive analysis of direct territorial emissions (as used in the Act) has been carried out for the NE Region Sustaine group. The study has produced regional emissions projections forward to 2020 and 2050 assuming “business as usual” and it puts into stark perspective the scale of the challenge that the Climate Change Act targets represent. The graph below depicts the regional 'allocation' of the 2020 Carbon Dioxide emissions target of 25.43 million tonnes of CO2, against the "Business as Usual Scenario."
The charts show that total regional carbon dioxide emissions in 2005 had reduced only slightly from 1990 levels with road transport emissions increasing markedly. Between 2005 and 2020, without significant intervention, overall emissions will stay much the same with reductions in the industrial and residential sectors being cancelled out by further increases from road transport and a near-threefold increase from aviation and shipping.
Greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures - renewable energy
Currently three quarters of UK electricity comes from coal and gas but the government has stated its ambition that, by 2050, virtually all electricity will come from renewable sources, nuclear or from fossil fuels but with the carbon dioxide emissions captured and safely stored for the long term. Nuclear plants will take years to build and carbon capture technologies possibly even longer to develop so, during the period up to 2020, improvements will have to come largely from renewables.
The UK Renewable Energy Strategy, released in 2009, describes how the UK government expects to meet a new European Renewable Energy Directive target of at least 15% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. Nationally, about half the 2020 target is expected to be met by renewable electricity generation, about a third by production of directly usable heat (mainly for businesses and the public sector) and the remaining 20% from renewable transport fuels. There are no regional targets for renewables.
Summarised DECC data for renewables sectors at the end of 2008 in the graph above, amount to a total installed renewable electricity generating capacity in the North East of 168MW. However, information from the same source on the status of planning applications (DECC, September 2010) identifies a total operational capacity of 210MW. An accelerating rate of movement towards renewables in the North East, as elsewhere in the country, is clearly indicated by the fact that 86MW of installed capacity are recorded in September 2010 as having been approved and under construction - 68MW onshore wind and 18MW biomass. A further 624MW are recorded as approved and awaiting construction – 282 onshore wind and 340MW biomass (including a 300MW biomass plant at Teesport).
Consumption-based greenhouse gas accounting
The concept of “end user” emissions used in the government’s greenhouse gas and carbon accounting methods can be taken further than simply the reallocation of power station emissions. For instance, why should the North East, as a manufacturing region, be held responsible for emissions from the production of goods consumed and enjoyed elsewhere? Conversely, should we not understand what “embedded emissions” arise from the manufacture and transport of all goods and the production of all services we consume?
The Stockholm Environment Institute has determined current and forecast greenhouse gas emissions arising from all goods and services consumed in the region, including those produced outside the UK. (Report: Assessing the impacts of economic growth on consumption and the environment, SEI, 2009)
This consumption-based measure can be thought of as part of an overall “ecological footprint” that can be calculated at national, regional, local or even individual level (see Ecological Footprint section)
According to this footprint measure, the England average per capita emissions, over 16 tonnes, are almost double the direct emissions of 8.9 tonnes (see chart below). At just under 15 tonnes, the North East emissions are lower than other English regions indicating an overall lower level of consumption. Regional emissions increased by about 5.7% between 1992 and 2006 and, the Stockholm Environment Institute study forecasts that they will continue to rise by 0.5-1.0% each year through to 2026 under expected economic growth scenarios even given improved carbon efficiency in the production process.
Adapting to the consequences of Climate ChangeNo matter how well we do in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, some disruption to our climate is now unavoidable. The UK Climate Projections for this century were updated and refined in July 2009 (UKCP09). This provides a very detailed description of the expected changes in climate (temperatures, rainfall, etc.) across the country up to 2050 and beyond under different modelling assumptions.
The 2020s - key findings for North East (central estimate under medium emissions scenario):
- Winter mean temperature increases by 1.2ºC;
- Summer mean temperature increases by 1.5ºC;
- Winter mean precipitation increases by 4%;
- Summer mean precipitation falls by 5%;
The 2050s - key findings for North East (central estimate under medium emissions scenario):
- Winter mean temperature increases by 2.0ºC;
- Summer mean temperature increases by 2.5ºC;
- Winter mean precipitation increases by 11%;
- Summer mean precipitation falls by 14%;
Although these changes may not seem dramatic, the impact on flooding (from river and the sea), droughts, storm intensities and heat waves have potentially major implications for our agriculture, industry, wildlife, health and ultimately our lifestyles. These implications are not necessarily all negative but, even the potentially positive opportunities that arise, need to be planned for and action taken on the basis of sound science.
In 2008, the North East Region Sustaine group commissioned a regional Climate Change Adaptation Study to provide the detailed local knowledge necessary so that action can be taken to increase the region’s resilience to climate change. The study assessed the impacts of the projected climate changes on current services, assets, communities, business and infrastructure as well as identifying, at a high level, what needs to be done to adapt.
This information is being used to inform more detailed risk assessments and planning at local level.