Headlines
- Migration into the North East increased substantially during the mid-2000s, very largely due to an increase in the number of migrants from Eastern Europe.
- The North East economy will benefit most if migrant workers are in high-level jobs where there are skill shortages.
Migration into the North East has increased in recent years. When looking at changes in the size of the population, migration is a significant factor, and is more volatile than the birth or death rates - the other components of population change Questions have been asked in the region in recent years about the relative benefits of the increased number of migrant workers to the region’s economy. This chapter considers the extent of migration into the region, and whether, economically, it is beneficial.
Overview : Effect of migration on the North East’s population
The chart below shows that the North East’s population was in a state of decline for several years – dropping by around 100,000 between 1981 and 2001. Since 2002, however, there has been a steady annual increase, to the point where the mid-year population estimates show a rise of some 46,000 between 2002 and 2009. Some of that rise is due to an increase in the birth rate, but migration has contributed significantly to population growth this decade.
The rise in the number of migrant workers in the region can be detected from rising numbers of registrations for national insurance (NINOs), and from the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS). Neither source is entirely satisfactory (as neither takes de-registrations into account, and the WRS is voluntary), but taken together with qualitative evidence a relatively clear picture of trends can be drawn. Since 2006 NERIP has been reporting changes in the data to inform regional policy relating to talent attraction – the argument being (and raised in the 2006 Regional Economic Strategy - RES) that an increased number of highly skilled migrant workers would have a positive effect on the RES target to increase the level of GVA per head to 90% of the national average by 2016. This is discussed further in the Benefits to the Economy section below.
The increase in migration this decade can very largely be attributed to the accession of eight countries from eastern Europe to the EU in 2004, with two further countries joining in 2007. Whereas most other EU member states put policies in place to limit the numbers of eastern European migrants, the UK welcomed all migrants from those countries from the start, and consequently a disproportionate number arrived here. In the North East (as with the rest of the UK), the majority who arrived came from Poland, but Czechs, Lithuanians, Latvians and Slovakians also featured prominently. The highest numbers of migrant workers came to work in Newcastle, but there were also significant numbers in Sunderland, Gateshead, County Durham, Northumberland, Middlesbrough, Stockton-on Tees and North and South Tyneside.
Nonetheless, there are other countries which also send significant numbers of migrant workers to the region and NERIP’s 2007 report ‘Overview of existing research into migration in North East England – a briefing paper’ showed that the ‘top 10’countries from which migrants come to the North East appeared to be Poland, India, Lithuania, Slovakia, South Africa, Australia, Pakistan, France, Latvia, Germany. That report, and subsequent NERIP work in this area, draws heavily on qualitative research as well as the two data sources mentioned above.
2010 data (quarter 1) from the Workers Registration scheme shows that the majority of migrant workers continue to be under 34 years old. Qualitative research undertaken in 2008 revealed some evidence of workers coming to Newcastle for a ‘gap year’ after completing studies. Many of these are highly qualified and not looking to stay in the region to follow a career.
The vast majority of migrant workers work in jobs at the lower end of the occupational spectrum, often earning low wages. Jobs include low-level factory employees, waiters, kitchen assistants, carers and cleaners. WRS data shows that there is a very small number of migrant workers in high level occupations including software engineering and researchers in higher education. There is also some evidence of migrant workers setting up small business in construction, gardening etc.
Some employers have recruited directly from Poland, believing that they will find dedicated employees there. This is especially true of the food processing, construction and farming industries, all of which use agencies to recruit people. In addition, a lot of recruitment appeared to happen through Agencies in the mid-2000s. Agencies either place people when they have arrived in the UK through their high street offices, or directly recruit people from countries (especially Poland) with assistance from EURES (the European Commission’s job mobility portal, helping to find information on jobs and learning opportunities throughout Europe) who also help regional companies. Whereas agencies initially tended to recruit people to work for other employers, a trend developed for Agencies to act as the employer and provide workers to work within other companies. By 2009, however, this tendency was on the decrease and at least one recruitment agency in the region closed. Migrant workers were also finding employment through ‘word of mouth’ – as friends told each other of the availability of jobs in the regions.
Some workers appear to be working in conditions inferior to those of their UK counterparts. There are examples of workers earning relatively low wages, facing hostility from their employers and other workers, and living in sub-standard accommodation.
The WRS shows that key industries which employ migrant workers include factory working, hotels and restaurants, food processing, farming, construction and distribution. The food process and farming industries are recruiting principally into Northumberland and Durham, whereas in Newcastle the catering industry is a bigger player. Factory working, distribution and construction takes place across the region. Generally, the differences between the types of industries which employ migrant workers varies surprisingly little across the region.
By 2009 the NINO data showed that the number of migrant workers arriving in the region from Poland was reducing in every district except Middlesbrough and Redcar and Cleveland, and overall the number of migrants arriving in 2009 was perhaps 20% fewer than the number in 2008. It has been suggested that this was due to the opening up of other EU markets to eastern European workers, and a less favourable rate of exchange between the pound and the zloty. Whilst the number of new arrivals from Poland was reducing, the number of migrants from Romania, Iran, Iraq, China and African countries was rising.
The WRS data shows that the number of registrations in Q1 2010 is less than one-third the number in the peak quarter Q3 2006, when 895 registrations were made.
Population movements within the UK
The scale of migration to the North East from other parts of the UK is much lower than that from other countries. Quarterly data, derived from GP registrations, is published by the Office for National, Statistics, from 2002 to 2009, and that time series has been used in the analysis. For each year, the annual October to September data has been used for consistency – so ‘2009’ refers to the year October 2008-September 2009, for example.
Over this period the North East has experienced a change in migration patterns, from having net gains of people from other parts of the UK, to having net-losses. The numbers are small however: from a net gain of some 700 people in 2002 to a net loss of some 2,400 in 2009. The peak year for net-in-migration was 2004, when around 2,400 more people arrived in the region than left it, as the graph below shows.
Where do people move to, when they leave the region? The pattern is very consistent, with Yorkshire and the Humber being the preferred destination in all years, followed by the North West, then London. Scotland, although adjacent, has fallen in the middle of the range, with Northern Ireland and Wales receiving fewest out-migrants from the North East. Generally, the pattern for each region is stable, although out-migration to London grew by about 1,900 between 2008 and 2009. The following table shows the numbers of out-migrants in 2009.
|
Region/ Country
|
Number of out-migrants, 2009
(to nearest 100)
|
|
Yorkshire and the Humber
|
9,200
|
|
North West
|
5,900
|
|
London
|
5,400
|
|
South East
|
4,100
|
|
Scotland
|
3,900
|
|
East Midlands
|
3,100
|
|
East of England
|
2,600
|
|
West Midlands
|
2,200
|
|
South West
|
2,200
|
|
Wales
|
1,000
|
|
Northern Ireland
|
500
|
Conversely, which UK countries or regions do people migrate to the North East from? Again, the pattern is very stable over the period, with Yorkshire and Humber being the most common followed by the North West, then London and the South East. In the case of North Yorkshire, in particular, some of these movements cover very short distances as the Tees Valley housing market areas include parts of North Yorkshire. Scotland once again appears in the middle of the range, with Wales and Northern Ireland at the bottom. The numbers of migrants from London, the South East and East of England have all shown a discernable decrease over this period. The numbers of migrants from each of the UK countries or regions in 2009 is shown in the following table:
|
Region/Country
|
Number of in-migrants, 2009
(to nearest 100)
|
|
Yorkshire and the Humber
|
9,100
|
|
North West
|
5,800
|
|
South East
|
3,800
|
|
London
|
3,500
|
|
Scotland
|
3,300
|
|
East Midlands
|
3,100
|
|
East of England
|
2,800
|
|
West Midlands
|
2,200
|
|
South West
|
2,000
|
|
Wales
|
900
|
|
Northern Ireland
|
800
|
Data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) tells us that there were 108,000 students attending the North East’s Universities in 2007/8. Of those, some 8,000 were postgraduate students from outside the UK, and a further 8,300 were undergraduates from overseas. This represents a 267% increase on the number of overseas post-graduates since 1996/7, and a 71% in the number of undergraduates. In both cases, the rise has exceeded national growth rates, comfortably.
This data is not easily broken down into individual nationalities or courses of study, but earlier research by NERIP in 2007 included analysis of further data purchased from HESA. That showed that, of the 11,700 international students at the region’s Universities in 2005-06, the largest groups were :
- Chinese (2900)
- Malaysian (750)
- Greece (710)
- India (710)
In contrast to what the migrant workers data shows, only small number of students originated in the A8 countries, the most populous being Poland, with only 64 students at the region’s Universities. That research also gave the following breakdown in the levels of study by country of origin:
- 1800 Chinese postgraduates and 1100 undergraduates
- 170 Malaysian postgraduates and 600 undergraduates
- 450 Indian postgraduates and 160 undergraduates
- 400 Greek postgraduates and 300 undergraduates
Looking at courses studied, the largest groups were
- 1700 Chinese studying business/administrative studies
- 350 Chinese studying computer science
- 190 Greeks studying engineering/technology
- 180 Indians studying engineering/technology
- 150 Indians studying medicine
- 140 Malaysians studying law
In response to a survey asking what international students planned to do after their studies (data relating to students at Newcastle, Durham and Northumbria Universities only), 8% said that they planned to stay in the UK for long-term employment and a further 11% planned to remain in the UK ‘temporarily for employment’.
The Talent North East Steering Group, which met during 2007 and 2008, was interested to know where in the world talent might be found that might help to fill skills gaps. As the recession in the UK continues, policy approaches to migration may alter as the number of skilled UK residents rises, and skills gaps change over time.
Benefits of migration to the North East Economy
One of the targets in the 2006 Regional Economic Strategy is to attain 90% of the national level of GVA/head by 2016 (currently 80%). When considering the benefits of migration in that context, the following points may be useful
- The small number of migrant workers in higher-level jobs will need to increase if they are to make a significant difference to the RES target of increasing the level of GVA/head in the region to 90% of the national rate
- Increasing the number of migrant workers in low-level jobs makes the RES target more difficult to attain Nonetheless, there are low-paid jobs in the North East which have proved hard to fill with local residents (even at a time of recession) and there is a case for employing migrant workers in those posts, at least until the workless population of the region is in a position to fill those posts
- ensuring that residents of the region who are currently workless have the skills to find work will help the attainment of the RES target
- it does not make a significant difference to meeting the RES target whether migrants to the North East are from the rest of the UK or other countries. There may be social implications however
- there may be overseas students emerging from the North East’s Universities with high-level skills that are useful to the economy of the North East, and which are not easily found within the region’s locally-born workers.